Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
