A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
